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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Increased

NEW YORK, Jan. 9, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan increased 0.3 percent in November to 101.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in October and a 1.5 percent increase in September.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in November to 96.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October, and a 0.2 percent increase in September.

While the Conference Board LEI for Japan has seen almost a year of ongoing expansion, the rate of increase has steadily decelerated in the second half of 2013. Taken together, weaker improvement in the leading index, coupled with a slightly negative turn in the coincident index, suggest that current growth in economic activity is unlikely to accelerate in the first half of 2014.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

      

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes













2013




6-month



Sep


Oct


Nov


May to Nov


Leading Economic index (LEI)

100.3

p

100.8

p

101.1

p



  Percent Change

1.5

p

0.5

p

0.3

p

3.1

p

  Diffusion

100.0


75.0


70.0


100.0











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

96.2

p

96.4

p

96.6

p



  Percent Change

0.2

p

0.2

p

0.2

p

-0.1

p

  Diffusion

75.0


100.0


75.0


50.0











n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

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