|By Marketwired .||
|July 13, 2014 10:01 AM EDT||
MONTREAL, QUEBEC -- (Marketwired) -- 07/13/14 -- Today, Bombardier released its annual 20-year forecasts for the business and commercial aircraft markets.
While the world economy has grown at a slower than expected rate, signs of improvement in the business and commercial aircraft markets have started to emerge. Business indicators are pointing towards a gradual industry recovery. New aircraft orders are supported by continued demand from established markets - such as North America and Europe - and growth potential in emerging markets, which are forecasted to play an increasing role in the global aviation marketplace. China is expected to be the second largest region in terms of commercial aircraft deliveries in the 20- to 149-seat segment, and the third for business aircraft over the next 20 years. Also, as environmental concerns continue to gain importance and high fuel prices add pressure to the bottom line, operators across both industries will remain focused on finding more efficient and sustainable solutions.
"At Bombardier, we have a long and proud tradition of pushing the boundaries of technology, and developing the next generation of aircraft that will better meet the needs of our customers - both today, and tomorrow," said Michael McAdoo, Vice President, Strategy and International Development, Bombardier Aerospace. "As such, Bombardier Aerospace with its new category-defining business and commercial programs is well-positioned to strengthen its leadership position in its current markets."
Business Aircraft Market Forecast
Bombardier is confident in the strong, long-term potential of the business aircraft industry and forecasts a total of 22,000 business jet deliveries from 2014 to 2033 in the segments in which Bombardier competes(i) representing approximately $617 billion US(ii) in industry revenues. Bombardier's Business Aircraft Market Forecast anticipates 9,200 aircraft deliveries, worth $264 billion US between 2014 and 2023, and 12,800 aircraft, worth $353 billion US, from 2024 to 2033.
The market for business aviation continues to show promising signs of recovery. While current macroeconomic indicators are mixed, the overall trend for the world economy is stable to positive. In 2014, the world GDP is expected to grow by 2.9 per cent, with higher growth expected in 2015 onward. Industry order intake saw incremental improvement in 2013 over 2012, allowing the industry to record a book-to-bill ratio of one for the second year in a row. Industry deliveries are expected to increase slightly in 2014 from 2013 based on the delivery guidance of manufacturers and new aircraft programs.
Business aircraft orders are expected to remain challenging in 2014 across the industry, but projected to improve beginning in 2015. It is also anticipated that with demand for business jets shifting towards emerging markets, the fleet of large and medium category aircraft will grow, with the large aircraft category demonstrating the fastest growth.
Over the forecast period, Bombardier predicts North America will receive the greatest number of new business jet deliveries between 2014 and 2033, followed by Europe, which remains the second largest market. China is forecast to become the third largest region in terms of deliveries over the next 20 years with 950 deliveries from 2014 to 2023, and 1,275 deliveries from 2024 to 2033.
Bombardier predicts that - similar to commercial aviation - future challenges facing the business aviation sector include rising fuel prices and increased environmental awareness. To face these challenges, Bombardier continues to invest in innovative, more efficient transportation solutions through its new aircraft development programs that include the Global 7000, Global 8000 and Learjet 85 aircraft.
Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast
The commercial aviation market is profitable and growing, and the industry continues to evolve to manage growth, high fuel prices and increased competition. Over the next 20 years, Bombardier forecasts demand for 13,100 aircraft deliveries in the 20- to 149-seat seat segment valued at $658 billion US(ii).
Bombardier forecasts the following industry deliveries by segment:
-- 20-to 59-seats: 400 aircraft deliveries -- 60- to 99-seats: 5,600 aircraft deliveries -- 100- to 149-seats: 7,100 aircraft deliveries
In the 20- to 59-seat segment, Bombardier anticipates that new aircraft deliveries will continue at a modest pace for the duration of the forecast period as old aircraft are retired and replaced with larger types. The 60- to 99-seat segment will continue to be one of the most dynamic in commercial aviation. It is anticipated that the fleet in this segment will more than double in size with new aircraft deliveries evenly split between large turboprops and large regional jets. The 100- to 149-seat aircraft segment, which has not been the focus of aircraft development for at least the past two decades, will witness a major fleet transformation with the entry-into-service of new clean-sheet aircraft designs.
The global demand for air travel and new aircraft continues to shift towards emerging markets where demand for air travel continues to grow with increasing GDP and an expanding middle class. However, as with the business aircraft industry, North America is expected to lead the way in commercial aircraft deliveries over the forecast period, taking in an expected 3,650 new aircraft, followed by Greater China with 2,280 aircraft, Europe with 1,840, the Asia Pacific with 1,400, Latin America with 1,100 aircraft, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) with 830, India with 760, Africa with 700, and the Middle East with 540.
Aircraft in the 20- to 149-seat segment have a vital role to play in the development of new markets, non-stop connections and increased frequencies; 70 per cent of the world's short- to medium-haul markets serve between 50 and 250 passengers per day each way (PDEW), and are best served by 20- to 149-seat aircraft.
With its Q400 NextGen turboprops, CRJ NextGen regional jets and CSeries aircraft, Bombardier has created products that will meet its customers' growing demand for sustainable transportation solutions that feature a reduced environmental impact.
Bombardier is the world's only manufacturer of both planes and trains. Looking far ahead while delivering today, Bombardier is evolving mobility worldwide by answering the call for more efficient, sustainable and enjoyable transportation everywhere. Our vehicles, services and, most of all, our employees are what make us a global leader in transportation.
Bombardier is headquartered in Montreal, Canada. Our shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (BBD) and we are listed on the Dow Jones Sustainability World and North America Indexes. In the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013, we posted revenues of $18.2 billion. News and information are available at bombardier.com or follow us on Twitter @Bombardier.
Notes to Editors
Follow @Bombardier_Aero on Twitter to receive the latest news and updates from Bombardier Aerospace.
(i) Bombardier's competitive segmentation includes Light, Medium and Large categories. Excludes very light jets and large corporate airliners.
(ii) Unit values are based on B&CA magazine 2013 list prices expressed in US$.
Bombardier, CRJ, CSeries, Global 7000, Global 8000, Learjet 85, NextGen, Q400 and The Evolution of Mobility are trademarks of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.
This press release includes forward-looking statements, which may involve, but are not limited to: statements with respect to our objectives, guidance, targets, goals, priorities, our market and strategies, financial position, beliefs, prospects, plans, expectations, anticipations, estimates and intentions; general economic and business outlook, prospects and trends of an industry; expected growth in demand for products and services; product development, including projected design, characteristics, capacity or performance; expected or scheduled entry-into-service of products and services, orders, deliveries, testing, lead times, certifications and project execution in general; our competitive position; and the expected impact of the legislative and regulatory environment and legal proceedings on our business and operations. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may", "will", "expect", "intend", "anticipate", "plan", "foresee", "believe", "continue", "maintain" or "align", the negative of these terms, variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause our actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. While we consider our assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on information currently available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements made in this press release, refer to the respective Guidance and forward-looking statements sections in Overview Aerospace and Transportation sections in the Management's Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") of the Corporation's financial report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013.
Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with our business environment (such as risks associated with the financial condition of the airline industry and major rail operators), operational risks (such as risks related to developing new products and services; doing business with partners; product performance warranty and casualty claim losses; regulatory and legal proceedings; the environment; dependence on certain customers and suppliers; human resources; fixed-price commitments and production and project execution), financing risks (such as risks related to liquidity and access to capital markets, exposure to credit risk, certain restrictive debt covenants, financing support provided for the benefit of certain customers and reliance on government support) and market risks (such as risks related to foreign currency fluctuations, changing interest rates, decreases in residual values and increases in commodity prices). For more details, see the Risks and uncertainties section in the MD&A of the Corporation's financial report for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements set forth herein reflect our expectations as at the date of this press release and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws, we expressly disclaim any intention, and assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
CAUTION REGARDING NON-GAAP MEASURES
This press release is based on reported earnings in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Reference to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) means IFRS, unless indicated otherwise. It is also based on non-GAAP financial measures including EBITDA, EBIT before special items, EBIT margin before special items, adjusted net income, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow. These non-GAAP measures are directly derived from the Consolidated Financial Statements, but do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS; therefore, others using these terms may calculate them differently. Management believes that providing certain non-GAAP performance measures, in addition to IFRS measures, provides users of our Consolidated Financial Statements with enhanced understanding of our results and related trends and increases transparency and clarity into the core results of our business. Refer to the Non-GAAP financial measures section in the MD&A for definitions of these metrics. Refer to Non-GAAP financial measures and Liquidity and capital resources sections and Analysis of results sections in Aerospace and Transportation of the Corporation's MD&A for reconciliations to the most comparable IFRS measures.
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