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NYT's 4th Down Bot gives the SuperBowl edge to the Broncos

Who will win the SuperBowl this Sunday: Seattle or Denver? As pundits around the country weigh in with their predictions, you might want to check out the analysis from the New York Times' 4th Down Bot, which compares the coaches' calls on fourth down plays with what historical statistics and a point-forecasting model indicate would have been the ideal play. According to the Bot, the Seahawks made of 6 of 8 4th down calls correctly in their championship-winning game (one of those was "complicated" according to the Bot, so let's give it to Seattle). In the Bronco's championship game, Denver made 5 of 6 calls correctly. So at least according to the Bot, Denver has the edge over Seattle in 4th down calls. (I'm going to get run out of Seattle for saying that!) As you're watching the game on Sunday, you can see the Bots calls in real-time on Twitter (follow NYT4thDownBot), and see if you agree with the model or with the coaches calls. By the way, the New York Times makes extensive use of R in its sports analysis, from fantasy football to draft picks to baseball. New York Times: 4th Down Bot

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More Stories By David Smith

David Smith is Vice President of Marketing and Community at Revolution Analytics. He has a long history with the R and statistics communities. After graduating with a degree in Statistics from the University of Adelaide, South Australia, he spent four years researching statistical methodology at Lancaster University in the United Kingdom, where he also developed a number of packages for the S-PLUS statistical modeling environment. He continued his association with S-PLUS at Insightful (now TIBCO Spotfire) overseeing the product management of S-PLUS and other statistical and data mining products.<

David smith is the co-author (with Bill Venables) of the popular tutorial manual, An Introduction to R, and one of the originating developers of the ESS: Emacs Speaks Statistics project. Today, he leads marketing for REvolution R, supports R communities worldwide, and is responsible for the Revolutions blog. Prior to joining Revolution Analytics, he served as vice president of product management at Zynchros, Inc. Follow him on twitter at @RevoDavid

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