Click here to close now.

Welcome!

Web 2.0 Authors: Liz McMillan, AppDynamics Blog, Elizabeth White, Tim Hinds, Carmen Gonzalez

News Feed Item

Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast Projects 13-Fold Growth in Global Mobile Internet Data Traffic From 2012 - 2017

Nearly Half of All Cellular Traffic Will Be Off-Loaded to Fixed or Wi-Fi Networks by 2017; 4G Expected to Support Nearly 10 Percent of All Mobile Connections by 2017

SAN JOSE, CA -- (Marketwire) -- 02/05/13 -- Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) -- According to the Cisco® Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2012 to 2017, worldwide mobile data traffic will increase 13-fold over the next four years, reaching 11.2 exabytes* per month (for an annual run rate of 134 exabytes) by 2017. The expected steady increase in mobile traffic is partly due to continued strong growth in the number of mobile Internet connections (personal devices and machine-to-machine applications), which will exceed the world's population (United Nations estimates 7.6 billion) by 2017.

*An exabyte is a unit of information or computer storage equal to one quintillion bytes.

The forecast's annual run rate of 134 exabytes of mobile data traffic is equivalent to:

  • 134 times all the Internet Protocol traffic (fixed and mobile) generated in the year 2000, or
  • 30 trillion images (e.g., via MMS or Instagram) -- 10 images daily from each person on earth for one year, or
  • 3 trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube) -- one video clip daily from each person on earth over one year.

The projected 2012 to 2017 global mobile data traffic increase represents a compound annual growth rate of 66 percent. The incremental amount of traffic being added to the mobile Internet just between 2016 and 2017 is 3.7 exabytes per month, which is more than four times the estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2012 (885 petabytes per month).

During the 2012 to 2017 forecast period, Cisco anticipates that global mobile data traffic will outpace global fixed data traffic by a factor of three. The following major trends are driving global mobile data traffic growth:

  • More mobile users: By 2017, there will be 5.2 billion mobile users (up from 4.3 billion in 2012).
  • More mobile connections: By 2017, there will be more than 10 billion mobile devices/connections, including more than 1.7 billion M2M connections (up from 7 billion total mobile devices and M2M connections in 2012).
  • Faster mobile speeds: Average global mobile network speeds will increase seven-fold from 2012 (0.5 Mbps) to 2017 (3.9 Mbps).
  • More mobile video: By 2017, mobile video will represent 66 percent of global mobile data traffic (up from 51 percent in 2012).

Impact of Mobile Devices/Connections

  • Smartphones, laptops, and tablets will drive 93 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2017.
  • M2M traffic (such as GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems, medical applications, etc.) will represent 5 percent of 2017 global mobile data traffic.
  • Basic handsets will account for the remaining 2 percent of global mobile data traffic in 2017.
  • In 2012, 14 percent of all mobile-connected devices/connections (1 billion) were IPv6-capable.
  • By 2017, 41 percent of all mobile-connected devices/connections (4.2 billion) will be IPv6-capable.

Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
To address the rise in demand for mobile Internet, and to address the lack of available new mobile spectrum and the expense and complexity of adding new macrocell sites, service providers are increasingly looking to offload traffic to fixed or Wi-Fi networks.

  • In 2012, 33 percent of total mobile data traffic was offloaded (428 petabytes/month).
  • By 2017, 46 percent of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded (9.6 exabytes/month).

Key Regional Growth Projections
In terms of mobile data traffic growth rates over the forecast period, the Middle East and Africa region is projected to have the highest regional growth rate. Below is how each of the regions ranks in terms of growth rate by 2017:

  • The Middle East and Africa: 77 percent CAGR (17.3-fold growth)
  • Asia-Pacific: 76 percent CAGR (16.9-fold growth)
  • Latin America: 67 percent CAGR (13.2-fold growth)
  • Central and Eastern Europe: 66 percent CAGR (12.8-fold growth)
  • North America: 56 percent CAGR (9.4-fold growth)
  • Western Europe: 50 percent CAGR (7.6-fold growth)

In terms of mobile data traffic generation, the Asia-Pacific region is projected to generate the most mobile data traffic. Here's how each of the regions rank in terms of anticipated mobile data traffic generation by 2017:

  • Asia-Pacific: 5.3 exabytes/month
  • North America: 2.1 exabytes/month
  • Western Europe: 1.4 exabytes/month
  • The Middle East and Africa: 0.9 exabytes/month
  • Central and Eastern Europe: 0.8 exabytes/month
  • Latin America: 0.7 exabytes/month

Impact of Faster Global Mobile Network Connection Speeds
The average mobile connection is expected to increase seven-fold from 2012 to 2017. Mobile connection speeds are a key factor in supporting mobile data traffic growth.


(kbps)                  2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017      CAGR
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Mobile
 Connection Speed        526    817   1,233  1,857  2,725  3,898  49 percent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Smartphone
 Connection Speed       2,064  2,664  3,358  4,263  5,284  6,528  26 percent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source: Results from Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST), part of the Cisco VNI program, and other independent speed test findings. The Cisco GIST application has more than 1 million global users. These projections include cellular connection speeds only (not Wi-Fi) and are based on extrapolations from historical mobile network connection speed data.

4G Adoption and Mobile Data Traffic Growth
Many global mobile carriers are deploying 4G technologies to address consumer and business users' demands for wireless services. In many emerging markets, carriers are creating new mobile networks with 4G solutions. In mature markets, carriers are supplementing or replacing legacy (2G/3G) networks with 4G technologies. The Cisco Mobile VNI study now projects the growth and impact of 4G.

  • In 2012, 2G supported 76 percent of global mobile devices/M2M connections; 3G supported 23 percent; and 4G supported 1 percent.
  • By 2017, 2G networks will support 33 percent of global mobile devices/M2M connections; 3G networks will support 57 percent; and 4G networks will support 10 percent.

  • In 2012, 4G connections accounted for 14 percent (124 petabytes/month) of mobile data traffic.
  • By 2017, 4G connections will account for 45 percent (5 exabytes/month) of mobile data traffic.

  • In 2012, the average 4G connection generated 2.1 gigabytes of mobile data traffic per month, which is 19 times the 0.110 gigabytes/month for the average non-4G connection.
  • By 2017, 4G traffic will grow 40-fold, a 109 percent CAGR.

Cisco Mobile VNI Forecast Methodology
The Cisco Mobile VNI study relies upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world mobile data usage studies. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco's own estimates for mobile application adoption, minutes of use, and transmission speeds. Key enablers such as mobile broadband speed and device computing power are also factored into Cisco VNI projections and findings. A detailed methodology description is included in the complete report (see link below).

Supporting Quote

  • Doug Webster, Vice President of Service Provider Networking Marketing, Cisco
    "By 2017, global mobile data traffic will continue its truly remarkable growth, increasing 13-fold over the next five years, to reach an amount more than 46 times the total amount of mobile IP traffic just a few years ago in 2010. With such dramatic adoption, we are rapidly approaching the time when nearly every network experience will be a mobile one and, more often than not, a visual one as well. This trend is a result of the seemingly insatiable demand by consumers and businesses alike to achieve the benefits gained when connecting people, data, and things in an Internet of Everything."

Executive Photo

  • Doug Webster, Vice President of Service Provider Networking Marketing, Cisco

YouTube Animation

Additional Images

  • Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
  • Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth -- Top Line

Additional Supporting Resources

Editor's Note
Cisco invites press, analysts and bloggers to attend a live webcast featuring Cisco executives and a roundtable of information technology and service provider industry experts talking about the global impact of mobile data traffic growth for service providers, organizations and consumers. The live webcast begins at 6p.m. PST today and can be accessed by going to Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update (2012-2017).

Cisco also welcomes press, analysts, bloggers, service providers, regulators and other interested parties to use and reference our research with proper attribution, such as "Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2012-2017."

Tags/Keywords
Cisco, Service Provider, Visual Networking Index, VNI, Mobile Internet, Mobile Data, Mobile Video, Mobile VNI, Doug Webster

RSS Feed for Cisco: http://newsroom.cisco.com/rss-feeds

About Cisco
Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) is the worldwide leader in IT that helps companies seize the opportunities of tomorrow by proving that amazing things can happen when you connect the previously unconnected. For ongoing news, please go to http://thenetwork.cisco.com.

Cisco and the Cisco logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Cisco and/or its affiliates in the U.S. and other countries. A listing of Cisco's trademarks can be found at www.cisco.com/go/trademarks. Third-party trademarks mentioned are the property of their respective owners. The use of the word partner does not imply a partnership relationship between Cisco and any other company.

Embedded Video Available

Image Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=2221369
Image Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=2221372
Image Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=2221417
Image Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=2221420
Embedded Video Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=2221407

Add to Digg Bookmark with del.icio.us Add to Newsvine

Press Contact:
Kevin Petschow
(847) 678.5462
[email protected]

Industry Analyst Contact:
Carter Cromwell
(949) 526.6914
[email protected]

Investor Relations Contact:
John Choi
(408) 526.6651
[email protected]

More Stories By Marketwired .

Copyright © 2009 Marketwired. All rights reserved. All the news releases provided by Marketwired are copyrighted. Any forms of copying other than an individual user's personal reference without express written permission is prohibited. Further distribution of these materials is strictly forbidden, including but not limited to, posting, emailing, faxing, archiving in a public database, redistributing via a computer network or in a printed form.

@ThingsExpo Stories
Wearable devices have come of age. The primary applications of wearables so far have been "the Quantified Self" or the tracking of one's fitness and health status. We propose the evolution of wearables into social and emotional communication devices. Our BE(tm) sensor uses light to visualize the skin conductance response. Our sensors are very inexpensive and can be massively distributed to audiences or groups of any size, in order to gauge reactions to performances, video, or any kind of presentation. In her session at @ThingsExpo, Jocelyn Scheirer, CEO & Founder of Bionolux, will discuss ho...
The true value of the Internet of Things (IoT) lies not just in the data, but through the services that protect the data, perform the analysis and present findings in a usable way. With many IoT elements rooted in traditional IT components, Big Data and IoT isn’t just a play for enterprise. In fact, the IoT presents SMBs with the prospect of launching entirely new activities and exploring innovative areas. CompTIA research identifies several areas where IoT is expected to have the greatest impact.
Every day we read jaw-dropping stats on the explosion of data. We allocate significant resources to harness and better understand it. We build businesses around it. But we’ve only just begun. For big payoffs in Big Data, CIOs are turning to cognitive computing. Cognitive computing’s ability to securely extract insights, understand natural language, and get smarter each time it’s used is the next, logical step for Big Data.
The 4th International Internet of @ThingsExpo, co-located with the 17th International Cloud Expo - to be held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA - announces that its Call for Papers is open. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the biggest idea since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago.
We are reaching the end of the beginning with WebRTC, and real systems using this technology have begun to appear. One challenge that faces every WebRTC deployment (in some form or another) is identity management. For example, if you have an existing service – possibly built on a variety of different PaaS/SaaS offerings – and you want to add real-time communications you are faced with a challenge relating to user management, authentication, authorization, and validation. Service providers will want to use their existing identities, but these will have credentials already that are (hopefully) i...
17th Cloud Expo, taking place Nov 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud strategy. Meanwhile, 94% of enterprises are using some form of XaaS – software, platform, and infrastructure as a service.
The Industrial Internet revolution is now underway, enabled by connected machines and billions of devices that communicate and collaborate. The massive amounts of Big Data requiring real-time analysis is flooding legacy IT systems and giving way to cloud environments that can handle the unpredictable workloads. Yet many barriers remain until we can fully realize the opportunities and benefits from the convergence of machines and devices with Big Data and the cloud, including interoperability, data security and privacy.
The 17th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. 17th International Cloud Expo, to be held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, APM, APIs, Microservices, Security, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding business opportunity. Submit your speaking proposal today!
The Internet of Things is tied together with a thin strand that is known as time. Coincidentally, at the core of nearly all data analytics is a timestamp. When working with time series data there are a few core principles that everyone should consider, especially across datasets where time is the common boundary. In his session at Internet of @ThingsExpo, Jim Scott, Director of Enterprise Strategy & Architecture at MapR Technologies, discussed single-value, geo-spatial, and log time series data. By focusing on enterprise applications and the data center, he will use OpenTSDB as an example t...
Scott Jenson leads a project called The Physical Web within the Chrome team at Google. Project members are working to take the scalability and openness of the web and use it to talk to the exponentially exploding range of smart devices. Nearly every company today working on the IoT comes up with the same basic solution: use my server and you'll be fine. But if we really believe there will be trillions of these devices, that just can't scale. We need a system that is open a scalable and by using the URL as a basic building block, we open this up and get the same resilience that the web enjoys.
SYS-CON Events announced today that MetraTech, now part of Ericsson, has been named “Silver Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9–11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York, NY. Ericsson is the driving force behind the Networked Society- a world leader in communications infrastructure, software and services. Some 40% of the world’s mobile traffic runs through networks Ericsson has supplied, serving more than 2.5 billion subscribers.
Container frameworks, such as Docker, provide a variety of benefits, including density of deployment across infrastructure, convenience for application developers to push updates with low operational hand-holding, and a fairly well-defined deployment workflow that can be orchestrated. Container frameworks also enable a DevOps approach to application development by cleanly separating concerns between operations and development teams. But running multi-container, multi-server apps with containers is very hard. You have to learn five new and different technologies and best practices (libswarm, sy...
SYS-CON Events announced today that DragonGlass, an enterprise search platform, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 16th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. After eleven years of designing and building custom applications, OpenCrowd has launched DragonGlass, a cloud-based platform that enables the development of search-based applications. These are a new breed of applications that utilize a search index as their backbone for data retrieval. They can easily adapt to new data sets and provide access to both structured and unstruc...
Converging digital disruptions is creating a major sea change - Cisco calls this the Internet of Everything (IoE). IoE is the network connection of People, Process, Data and Things, fueled by Cloud, Mobile, Social, Analytics and Security, and it represents a $19Trillion value-at-stake over the next 10 years. In her keynote at @ThingsExpo, Manjula Talreja, VP of Cisco Consulting Services, will discuss IoE and the enormous opportunities it provides to public and private firms alike. She will share what businesses must do to thrive in the IoE economy, citing examples from several industry sector...
With major technology companies and startups seriously embracing IoT strategies, now is the perfect time to attend @ThingsExpo in Silicon Valley. Learn what is going on, contribute to the discussions, and ensure that your enterprise is as "IoT-Ready" as it can be! Internet of @ThingsExpo, taking place Nov 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 17th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the most profound change in personal an...
All major researchers estimate there will be tens of billions devices - computers, smartphones, tablets, and sensors - connected to the Internet by 2020. This number will continue to grow at a rapid pace for the next several decades. With major technology companies and startups seriously embracing IoT strategies, now is the perfect time to attend @ThingsExpo, June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City. Learn what is going on, contribute to the discussions, and ensure that your enterprise is as "IoT-Ready" as it can be
An entirely new security model is needed for the Internet of Things, or is it? Can we save some old and tested controls for this new and different environment? In his session at @ThingsExpo, New York's at the Javits Center, Davi Ottenheimer, EMC Senior Director of Trust, reviewed hands-on lessons with IoT devices and reveal a new risk balance you might not expect. Davi Ottenheimer, EMC Senior Director of Trust, has more than nineteen years' experience managing global security operations and assessments, including a decade of leading incident response and digital forensics. He is co-author of t...
The Internet of Things is a misnomer. That implies that everything is on the Internet, and that simply should not be - especially for things that are blurring the line between medical devices that stimulate like a pacemaker and quantified self-sensors like a pedometer or pulse tracker. The mesh of things that we manage must be segmented into zones of trust for sensing data, transmitting data, receiving command and control administrative changes, and peer-to-peer mesh messaging. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Ryan Bagnulo, Solution Architect / Software Engineer at SOA Software, focused on desi...
While great strides have been made relative to the video aspects of remote collaboration, audio technology has basically stagnated. Typically all audio is mixed to a single monaural stream and emanates from a single point, such as a speakerphone or a speaker associated with a video monitor. This leads to confusion and lack of understanding among participants especially regarding who is actually speaking. Spatial teleconferencing introduces the concept of acoustic spatial separation between conference participants in three dimensional space. This has been shown to significantly improve comprehe...
SYS-CON Events announced today that the "First Containers & Microservices Conference" will take place June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City. The “Second Containers & Microservices Conference” will take place November 3-5, 2015, at Santa Clara Convention Center, Santa Clara, CA. Containers and microservices have become topics of intense interest throughout the cloud developer and enterprise IT communities.