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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Remains Unchanged

BRUSSELS, Jan. 24, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany was unchanged in November at 103.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in October, and a 0.6 percent decline in September.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in November at 106.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in October, and a 0.3 percent decline in September.

The LEI has improved slightly over the last two months, but its six month growth rate is still in negative territory. Meanwhile, the six-month growth rate for the CEI remains in negative territory with most of the coincident indicators declining over the past six months. Taken together, the behavior of both the leading and coincident indexes suggests that economic activity is unlikely to strengthen over the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes




2012


6-month




Sep 


Oct 


Nov



May to Nov

Leading Economic Index (LEI)


102.6

p

103.1

p

103.1

p




Percent Change


-0.6

p

0.5

p

0.0

p


-1.1

p


Diffusion


42.9


85.7


57.1



57.1












Coincident Economic Index (CEI)


107.0


106.7


106.7





Percent Change


-0.3


-0.3


0.0



-0.5


Diffusion


12.5


12.5


62.5



12.5












n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

 

 

SOURCE The Conference Board

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