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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Declines

NEW YORK, Jan. 10, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan declined 0.2 percent in November to 91.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in October, and a 0.6 percent decline in September.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, decreased 0.2 percent in November to 96.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in October, and a 0.7 percent decline in September.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan has been declining since early 2012, and as a result its six-month growth rate has remained in negative territory. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Japan also declined — and has been on a downward trend since February 2012. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that the current economic downturn is likely to continue in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2012

6-month


Sep

Oct

Nov

May to Nov

Leading Economic Index (LEI)  

92.3

p  

91.9

p  

91.7

p



   Percent Change  

-0.6

p  

-0.4

p  

-0.2

p  

-4.3

p

   Diffusion  

50.0


50.0


35.0


50.0











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)  

95.8

p  

96.3

p  

96.1

p



   Percent Change  

-0.7

p  

0.5

p  

-0.2

p  

-0.7

p

   Diffusion  

25.0


100.0


25.0


50.0











n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

 

SOURCE The Conference Board

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