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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Remains Unchanged

BRUSSELS, Dec. 19, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany was unchanged in October, remaining at 101.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent decline in September and a 0.2 percent decline in August.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.4 percent in October to 106.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in September, and a 0.1 percent decline in August.

The recent declining trend in the LEI has kept its six-month growth rate in solidly negative territory. Meanwhile, the six-month growth rate for the CEI remains in negative territory. Taken together, the recent declines in both the leading and coincident indexes suggest that the recent slowdown in economic output is likely to continue and economic activity will remain weak in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes


2012

6-month


Aug

Sep

Oct

Apr to Oct










Leading Economic Index (LEI)  

102.2

r  

101.6

p  

101.6

p



   Percent Change  

-0.2

r  

-0.6

p  

0.0

p  

-2.2

p

   Diffusion  

50.0


42.9


64.3


42.9











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)  

107.1


106.8

r  

106.4




   Percent Change  

-0.1

r  

-0.3

r  

-0.4


-0.5


   Diffusion  

25.0


37.5


12.5


25.0











n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

 

SOURCE The Conference Board

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