Welcome!

Agile Computing Authors: Elizabeth White, Pat Romanski, JP Morgenthal, Fouad Khalil, Craig Lowell

News Feed Item

Europeans Need to Embrace Radical Change to Save the Euro

LONDON, December 3, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --

  • A Greek exit and profound restructuring could be the least painful scenario for saving the Eurozone
  • Latest e-book from Saxo Capital Markets argues Eurozone needs to reach rock-bottom before recovery

The Eurozone will bounce back only once its leaders and inhabitants end up in such a desperate situation that they realise the only way out is through radical change, says Saxo Capital Markets.

     (Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20121115/574147  )

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Analyst at Saxo, comments:

"We are now nearing the point of no return for Europe. Time is running out for Europe as 2012 became an issue of letting the central banks do the dirty job of keeping the tail-risk away though Draghi's put and general easy monetary policy."

"A Greek exit may sound like a frightening scenario, but profoundly restructuring the Eurozone may be less painful than a slow Japanese style death, with deflation, massive fiscal deficits, negative real-rates, housing prices lower than 30 years ago and a stock market valuation at less than 50% of its peak."

In "The Euro in crisis", the third chapter of the e-book in Saxo Capital Markets' FX Debates Series, Saxo analyses the unfolding of the Eurozone crisis as a three-stage process, following its evolution through phases of denial, protest and, ultimately, change.

Steen Jakobsen explains:

"First, in the denial phase we have fiscal stimulus. Then in the protest phase we have changes of political figureheads where there is no real change, but with some milder fiscal stimulus underneath. Then, ultimately, we move to a serious mandate for change. The Eurozone will bounce back only once its leaders and citizens, prompted by social unrest, realise and accept that the only way out is through radical change."

About social unrest Steen Jakobsen comments:

"It's very likely that someone who is getting their salary pummeled, their disposable income pummeled, and their purchasing power pummeled gets upset because, with the high stock market, the richest 1% and the corporations are making all the money. History shows that when the source of tension becomes too big, things can blow up. That's where we are at today."

Saxo Capital Markets sees three potential outcomes to the Eurozone debt crisis:

•             Meeting of the Cardinals - 20%probability

•             Extend-and-pretend Squared - 60% probability

•             Doom-and-Gloom - 20% probability


Meeting of the Cardinals

The Meeting of the Cardinals (MoC) will be the only orderly solution dictated by rational and practical solutions, where some countries need to leave the Euro, whether permanently or for a tempory period.

Comments Jakobsen:

"Here, the guinea pig will most likely be Greece. This will force Club Med to the table and make them accept further loss of sovereignty on fiscal and monetary policy, most likely in a German model where the European Court of Justice becomes the highest-ranking authority.

"The MoC scenario will likely lead to a short-term negative market reaction and a deep one-to-three year recession. However, this could also trigger the final phase of the three-phase crisis model: Mandate for Change. Inside the mandate for change there is a V-shaped recovery when reforms are initiated from the low point. For investors, the MoC is the best solution as it will lead to several years of prosperity amid better debt-to-equity, more realistic future expectations, and a public sector under control."

Extend-and-Pretend Squared

According to Jakobsen, the more likely scenario, however, is that Eurozone policy markets will continue to use delay tactics.

"The extend-and-pretend forever solution is about buying time - more of the same patch work solutions, slowly forcing Europe towards fiscal consolidation, not changing the Maastricht Treaty but the European Central Bank (ECB) charter to allow it to be lender-of-last-resort. This is the final phase of 'Maximum Intervention' - bigger and bigger direct support on liquidity and no impact on the solvency. This outcome is a vicious circle as every time the major central banks start the printing press, people's purchasing power diminishes." explains Jakobsen.

Doom-and-gloom

Under this scenario there are no good solutions to this crisis. Markets would re-test their 2009 lows and there will be a deep rooted discontentment with politics and the banking system, which could lead to social unrest and worse.

Steen Jakobsen concludes:

"The magnitude of this debt crisis is far larger than the market realises. The idea that it's merely a question of Germany paying is not only naïve, but also impossible. They cannot and they should not pay - and nor is the ECB the only solution to this debt crisis. There is only one solution: the system must fail and both the Euro and the Eurozone need to be redefined."

"The Euro in crisis" is the third part of Saxo's e-book, #FXdebates - Trading Insights from our Top Analysts, which focuses on trends in currency movements and pairings, the challenges affecting FX traders and advice on key trading strategies. The other articles in the #FXdebates series will focus on:

  • The US Dollar (published)
  • Yuan Diplomacy (published)
  • Gold - Just another currency?
  • Currency Wars: Battle Of The Weakest

The #FXdebates series of articles will be published over the next three months, leading the way to an event in February 2012 in collaboration with Bloomberg LINK.  

For more information please see:   http://uk.saxomarkets.com/fxdebates

Follow the debates via twitter: https://twitter.com/SaxoMarketsUK

Hashtag: #FXdebates

About Saxo Capital Markets

Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group, an international financial services group specialising in trading and investment across global financial markets. Saxo Bank has operated in the UK since March 2006, initially as a branch of Saxo Bank A/S and since 1 January, 2012 as Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited.

Saxo Capital Markets UK offers private investors online trading and investment in FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives, and online wealth management for Funds, Shares, ETFs, Certificates and Bonds. Saxo Capital Markets UK also offers online trading services to a broad institutional client base including Hedge Funds, Introducing Brokers and Money Managers through our award-winning trading platform SaxoTrader, SaxoWebTrader and SaxoMobileTrader and Saxo's B2B/API services.

Additionally a large base of Banks, Brokers, Asset and Money managers, utilise our award winning white label solutions, in order to provide their clients with access to all or some of our trading platforms and associated liquidity.

Find out more about FX Trading opportunities with Saxo Capital Markets.

Media enquiries
Uriel Alvarado Cancino, Chief Public Relations and Marketing Officer, Saxo Capital Markets UK
+44(0)207-151-2026, [email protected]

Nicholle De Beer, Public Relations and Marketing Manager, Saxo Capital Markets UK
+44(0)207-151-2024, [email protected]

Smithfield
+44(0)20-7360-4900, [email protected]


More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

@ThingsExpo Stories
Internet of @ThingsExpo, taking place November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 19th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the most profound change in personal and enterprise IT since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago. All major researchers estimate there will be tens of billions devices - comp...
DevOps at Cloud Expo, taking place Nov 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 19th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time to wait for long dev...
Data is the fuel that drives the machine learning algorithmic engines and ultimately provides the business value. In his session at Cloud Expo, Ed Featherston, a director and senior enterprise architect at Collaborative Consulting, will discuss the key considerations around quality, volume, timeliness, and pedigree that must be dealt with in order to properly fuel that engine.
19th Cloud Expo, taking place November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud strategy. Meanwhile, 94% of enterpri...
There is growing need for data-driven applications and the need for digital platforms to build these apps. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Muddu Sudhakar, VP and GM of Security & IoT at Splunk, will cover different PaaS solutions and Big Data platforms that are available to build applications. In addition, AI and machine learning are creating new requirements that developers need in the building of next-gen apps. The next-generation digital platforms have some of the past platform needs a...
SYS-CON Events announced today Telecom Reseller has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Telecom Reseller reports on Unified Communications, UCaaS, BPaaS for enterprise and SMBs. They report extensively on both customer premises based solutions such as IP-PBX as well as cloud based and hosted platforms.
The 19th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. Cloud Expo, to be held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, Digital Transformation, Microservices and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding business opportuni...
With so much going on in this space you could be forgiven for thinking you were always working with yesterday’s technologies. So much change, so quickly. What do you do if you have to build a solution from the ground up that is expected to live in the field for at least 5-10 years? This is the challenge we faced when we looked to refresh our existing 10-year-old custom hardware stack to measure the fullness of trash cans and compactors.
The emerging Internet of Everything creates tremendous new opportunities for customer engagement and business model innovation. However, enterprises must overcome a number of critical challenges to bring these new solutions to market. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Michael Martin, CTO/CIO at nfrastructure, outlined these key challenges and recommended approaches for overcoming them to achieve speed and agility in the design, development and implementation of Internet of Everything solutions wi...
Cloud computing is being adopted in one form or another by 94% of enterprises today. Tens of billions of new devices are being connected to The Internet of Things. And Big Data is driving this bus. An exponential increase is expected in the amount of information being processed, managed, analyzed, and acted upon by enterprise IT. This amazing is not part of some distant future - it is happening today. One report shows a 650% increase in enterprise data by 2020. Other estimates are even higher....
Today we can collect lots and lots of performance data. We build beautiful dashboards and even have fancy query languages to access and transform the data. Still performance data is a secret language only a couple of people understand. The more business becomes digital the more stakeholders are interested in this data including how it relates to business. Some of these people have never used a monitoring tool before. They have a question on their mind like “How is my application doing” but no id...
Identity is in everything and customers are looking to their providers to ensure the security of their identities, transactions and data. With the increased reliance on cloud-based services, service providers must build security and trust into their offerings, adding value to customers and improving the user experience. Making identity, security and privacy easy for customers provides a unique advantage over the competition.
Smart Cities are here to stay, but for their promise to be delivered, the data they produce must not be put in new siloes. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Mathias Herberts, Co-founder and CTO of Cityzen Data, will deep dive into best practices that will ensure a successful smart city journey.
SYS-CON Events announced today that 910Telecom will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Housed in the classic Denver Gas & Electric Building, 910 15th St., 910Telecom is a carrier-neutral telecom hotel located in the heart of Denver. Adjacent to CenturyLink, AT&T, and Denver Main, 910Telecom offers connectivity to all major carriers, Internet service providers, Internet backbones and ...
I wanted to gather all of my Internet of Things (IOT) blogs into a single blog (that I could later use with my University of San Francisco (USF) Big Data “MBA” course). However as I started to pull these blogs together, I realized that my IOT discussion lacked a vision; it lacked an end point towards which an organization could drive their IOT envisioning, proof of value, app dev, data engineering and data science efforts. And I think that the IOT end point is really quite simple…
Pulzze Systems was happy to participate in such a premier event and thankful to be receiving the winning investment and global network support from G-Startup Worldwide. It is an exciting time for Pulzze to showcase the effectiveness of innovative technologies and enable them to make the world smarter and better. The reputable contest is held to identify promising startups around the globe that are assured to change the world through their innovative products and disruptive technologies. There w...
Personalization has long been the holy grail of marketing. Simply stated, communicate the most relevant offer to the right person and you will increase sales. To achieve this, you must understand the individual. Consequently, digital marketers developed many ways to gather and leverage customer information to deliver targeted experiences. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Lou Casal, Founder and Principal Consultant at Practicala, discussed how the Internet of Things (IoT) has accelerated our abil...
Is the ongoing quest for agility in the data center forcing you to evaluate how to be a part of infrastructure automation efforts? As organizations evolve toward bimodal IT operations, they are embracing new service delivery models and leveraging virtualization to increase infrastructure agility. Therefore, the network must evolve in parallel to become equally agile. Read this essential piece of Gartner research for recommendations on achieving greater agility.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Venafi, the Immune System for the Internet™ and the leading provider of Next Generation Trust Protection, will exhibit at @DevOpsSummit at 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Venafi is the Immune System for the Internet™ that protects the foundation of all cybersecurity – cryptographic keys and digital certificates – so they can’t be misused by bad guys in attacks...
For basic one-to-one voice or video calling solutions, WebRTC has proven to be a very powerful technology. Although WebRTC’s core functionality is to provide secure, real-time p2p media streaming, leveraging native platform features and server-side components brings up new communication capabilities for web and native mobile applications, allowing for advanced multi-user use cases such as video broadcasting, conferencing, and media recording.