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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

BRUSSELS, Nov. 21, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.1 percent in September to 102.6 (2004 = 100), following no change in August, and a 0.2 percent decline in July.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.2 percent in September to 106.9 (2004 = 100), following no change in both August and July.

Despite this month's increase, the LEI for Germany has been on a downward trend for most of 2012. Meanwhile, the CEI for Germany has fallen back to its level in April.  Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes for Germany suggests that although modest growth in real GDP may continue in the fourth quarter, the economy is more likely to weaken rather than strengthen in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

Summary Table of Composite Indexes







2012

 

6-month


Jul

Aug

Sep

Mar to Sep






Leading Economic Index (LEI)

102.5 p

102.5 p

102.6 p


     Percent Change

-0.2 p

0.0 p

0.1 p

-2.0 p

     Diffusion

42.9

57.1

57.1

42.9






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

107.1 r

107.1 r

106.9


     Percent Change

0.0 r

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

     Diffusion

75.0

50.0

37.5

50.0






n.a. Not available      p Preliminary      r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board           All Rights Reserved

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SOURCE The Conference Board

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