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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia Declines

NEW YORK, Nov. 19, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --  The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia declined 0.3 percent in September to 123.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent decline in August and a 0.1 percent decline in July.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in September, remaining at 120.2 (2004 = 100), following no change in August and July.

The LEI for Australia declined throughout the third quarter of 2012 and as a result, the six-month change in the LEI remains negative. Meanwhile, the CEI for Australia was flat again in September, and its six-month growth rate has fallen compared to earlier this year. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that the economy will continue to expand, but that the pace of growth is likely to slow. 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include:

Yield Spread, 10 year minus Policy Rate
Share Prices, All Ordinaries
Money Supply, M3
Rural Goods Exports
Sales to Inventory Ratio
Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corporations
Building Approvals

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=7  

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm  

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes











2012


6-month



Jul


Aug


Sep


Mar to Sep











Leading Economic Index

124.8

p

123.8

p

123.4

p



    Percent Change

-0.1

p

-0.8

p

-0.3

p

-1.1


    Diffusion

71.4


57.1


64.3


71.4











Coincident Economic Index

120.2

p

120.2

p

120.2

p



    Percent Change

0.0

p

0.0

p

0.0

p

0.3


    Diffusion

62.5


25.0


62.5


75.0











n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised




Indexes equal 100 in 2004



Source: The Conference Board        All Rights Reserved




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SOURCE The Conference Board Leading Economic Index

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