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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Increases

NEW YORK, Nov. 16, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 0.2 percent in September to 122.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in August, and a 1.5 percent increase in July.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in September to 121.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.

The LEI for Mexico increased in September, but has declined in four of the last six months. As a result, the six-month change in the index remains negative. Meanwhile, the CEI for Mexico also improved in September, and its six-month growth rate has been fairly steady throughout this year. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that the economy is likely to expand, but the rate of expansion will likely slow further in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

 

Summary Table of Composite Indexes


2012

6-month


Jul

Aug

Sep

Mar to Sep






Leading index

122.0r

121.7r

122.0


     Percent Change

1.5r

-0.2

0.2

-0.6

     Diffusion

91.7r

41.7

75.0

41.7






Coincident Index

120.6

121.0r

121.2


     Percent Change

0.3r

0.3r

0.2

1.9

     Diffusion

83.3

100.0

66.7

100.0






n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board     All Rights Reserved

 

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