Click here to close now.




















Welcome!

Agile Computing Authors: Liz McMillan, Elizabeth White, Eric Aarrestad, Tim Hinds, Ian Khan

Related Topics: @CloudExpo, Microservices Expo

@CloudExpo: Article

Cloud Finance: Best Practices for Implementing Rolling Forecasts

How rolling forecasts can enable sound Business Decisions

Everyone wants a crystal ball to be able to peer into the future. For businesses, that desire becomes a necessity because having a vision of the future allows for better and more strategic decision making in the present.

Rolling forecasts built on driver-based and project-based planning do just that, creating a framework that supports better decision making. A rolling forecast simply means that each quarter or month, a company projects four to six quarters or 12 to 18 months ahead.

This allows executives and key decision-makers to see both a financial and operational vision of the future. It also helps them assess next steps in their execution of their plan, understand critical pivot points in the plan and better judge the impact the economy may have on their plan.

We have seen rolling forecasts can replace annual planning cycles with a continual planning process that results in more regular business reviews that look to the future. These reviews enable managers to understand problems, challenges and trends sooner and improve their proactive approach to those problems, challenges and trends.

Here are the top 10 best practices for implementing them:

1. You need a system and Excel is not a system (it's a personal productivity tool). In the next nine best practices we will outline functionality and practices that will outstrip the capability of Excel spreadsheets. The challenge we have seen arises when companies start rolling forecasts in Excel and then can't keep them up to date because it isn't just a single forecast. Once a baseline forecast is created, additional analysis/versions will be required to:

  • Understand the impact of major and minor alterations to the plan
  • Run the plan against different drivers
  • Copy the plan as a baseline for other plans
  • Perform variance and sensitivity analysis

To get the most out of rolling forecasts you need a system that can provide the necessary functionality to accommodate your budget, forecasting, planning, strategic management and measurement needs. Excel will be to labor intensive, prone to error and too difficult to provide the reporting.

2. Understand your objectives of creating a rolling forecast. This will drive all of the other best practices related to rolling forecasts. While the overall objective of planning is to a) create a financial view of the vision for the future and to know the decisions you need to make and b) understand the financial impact of those decisions before you need to make them, your objectives and focus for the rolling forecast will dictate the areas of the plan that need more detail. As an example:

  • If your strategic plan calls for acquisitions you may consider building the plan with a high-level summary input of drivers that help plan for acquisitions.
  • If you want to better manage finished goods inventory you may focus more on customer/product forecasts and inventory management.
  • If cash is tight you will want to focus on timing of events around cash, i.e., payables and receivables policies, cash borrowings, line of credit.

The challenge is, there isn't one overriding holistic model format that allows you to account for all of these in a first pass rolling forecast implementation.

3. Identify the rolling forecast duration. The challenge with rolling forecast duration is it sounds easy until you put pen to paper and begin to implement it. There are a number of questions:

  • Will you re-forecast every month or every quarter? (many of our customers re-forecast monthly)
  • Will you add a new month to every forecast or just add a new quarter at quarter end? (our customers either add new periods quarterly or start planning for a two year time frame)
  • How long should the rolling forecast be--12 months 15 months 18 months, or should you start by forecasting out two years and at the end of the first year tack on another year?
  • How will the mechanics work of rolling in actual?

As a starting point, make sure your forecasting time frames are consistent with your business cycle and business needs. If sales 15 months from now are dependent on capital expenditures today, it is important to create rolling forecasts out past 15 months. It is also important to have a minimum of quarterly bias to the rolling forecast. That is, don't tack on an additional month to a rolling forecast at the end of every month, wait until quarter end and then add a new quarter, otherwise each month you are making preparers think about a new forecast period.

4. Identify the rolling forecast comparison periods. While this sounds relatively straightforward, it gets tricky when you consider the need for comparison columns in reporting. It is tricky because you need to compare to multiple periods/combinations of actual and forecast. With annual plans we compare the combination current year actual for closed periods and forecast for remaining periods to last year actual. We think in terms of annual sales and annualized expenses. With rolling forecasts we need to also roll in the actual and shift the comparison periods. We must be able to not only provide annual comparisons, (i.e. How will this year compare to last year?, Where will we end up for this year?) but we also need to provide how this 12/15/18 month rolling plan compares to the 12/15/18 actual results. This requires access to roll the forecast periods but also roll the comparison periods, for not just actual, but also for prior year actual.

5. Understand/analyze the dynamics of revenue and expense in your business and their related drivers. Rolling forecasts won't work if you create them from a bottom up forecast every quarter--they need to be driver based. This provides flexibility in the planning process and agility when you re-plan or create alternate plans. It also helps managers focus on what is really important. Over time, some of the drivers will be replaced if they are found as an inconsistent predictor of results and the stronger drivers will evolve to KPIs and used for goal setting. In addition, over time forecasts will also start to use consistent models and model drivers.

As an example, sales units should drive production volumes. Price increases could drive (or be driven by) material and labor cost increases.

To help understand what drives your business you can ask these questions:

  • How does this line item affect our bottom line?
  • Will $1 (pick appropriate unit of measure, thousands, millions, billions) in sales affect this account?
  • How does this number change our bottom line?

To be successful doing rolling forecasts it is important to use drivers to eliminate detail while creating a realistic expectation about the future.

6. Plan capital and strategic projects separately from the rolling forecast. Capital and strategic projects should be layered separately into the plan. Projects have two unique characteristics that require this:

  • They are time independent of a typical rolling forecast. Projects can last months to years and treating them with the same duration as a forecast doesn't provide the complete story around the projects.
  • They typically have a lot of dependencies which means project expenditures can be moved out or in a plan for a variety of reasons.

Projects should be treated as separate entity/profit center and have the ability to be move in and out of rolling forecasts. In addition they should have the ability to move time frames and adjust for changes in project scope.

7. Start with a small select group of key department/operations managers, plan on increasing the scope over time and plan on continual improvement over time. While conventional wisdom is to involve as many participants as possible, many companies find it easier to start with a small group that cuts across the major departments and gradually involve more executives, lines of business managers and operational managers as processes, methods are refined. Let the small group get some practice with the process. It will help flush out the process and the more practice they have at preparing forecasts, the better they will become and the more mentoring they can provide as you add additional participants. Typically there is a risk (including career risk) if you roll something out that isn't totally baked or based on theory, which could result in confusion, especially if you are doing it with a large group within the company.

As you expand the scope of the plan and the more people share in the plan the closer to reality the plan will be and the better the execution.

In addition you should plan for and build in a process of continual improvement. Managers should learn from their forecast accuracy record by carrying out postmortems on forecast. The objective is not to punish the guilty but to better understand how to do better, what changed, what were we surprised about, where what should we do differently to turn out better forecasts. To improve forecast, it is important to understand the cause for variability and learn to reduce them through postmortems.

8. Consider the rolling forecast as your baseline plan. Once you have the completed rolling forecast for the period/month, use it as your baseline plan. From this plan finance can massage drivers, adjust values and analyzing alternate scenarios, black swan events and potential significant events, to create a picture of alternate futures and be prepared to make decisions if situations arise.

This does requires the flexibility in the tool you are using to "mash up" scenarios and compare scenarios from different sources.

9. Tie your rolling forecast to your strategic plan. Rolling forecasts, if well prepared, form the backbone of a new and much more useful information system that connects all the pieces of the organization and gives senior management a continuous picture of both the current position and the short term outlook.

10. Analyze/understand how external conditions impact your performance. Business does not operate in a vacuum. Plan on qualifying the key external drivers of your business.

Do not confuse rolling forecasts with targets you receive your bonus on. Regarding targets and profitability, is it better to hit your target or gain targeted market share? Leading organizations are placing forecasting at the center of the management process. It becomes the essential tool for business managers to support their decision making, not just another management chore that needs to be done and they are basing targets not on fixed revenue numbers but rather percentages based on external market indicators.

Adaptive organizations focus less on annual budgets targets or long-term views/targets generated from within the company based on incremental sales and income year over year and focus more on rolling views and goals based on market conditions like achieving market share or achieving cost efficiencies over the competition by benchmarking against competition or similar public companies.

One Caution
As you consider implementing rolling forecasts remember the purpose is to provide a vision for the future and support better decisions. If you try to motivate behavior based on this forecast the results and plans get skewed and the usefulness of the solution is compromised. Forecasts should not be used by executive management as a tool for questioning or reassessing performance targets. This means forecasts and targets must be independent if you want to obtain both relevant action plans and reliable forecasts that allow risks and opportunities to be identified and corrective action taken in the best interest of the company (which may be in conflict with the target). If you do merge the two, the term "sandbagging" comes to mind.

Conclusion
Many businesses have yet to discover the full benefits of evolving their planning process to include complete and accurate rolling forecasts. With so many external factors that affect the bottom line for these businesses, including the volatility of the economy, creating rolling forecasts is a sound way to ensure strategic decisions are made. Businesses need an accurate picture of a future in order to chart a course towards it.

More Stories By Jon Kondo

Jon Kondo is president and CEO at Host Analytics, a leading provider of Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) based Corporate Performance Management (CPM) solutions. As CEO, he has led the company to record growth, partnerships, and industry accolades. Jon holds an MBA from Thunderbird School of Global Management and a BA in Business Economics from UC Santa Barbara.

@ThingsExpo Stories
SYS-CON Events announced today that HPM Networks will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. For 20 years, HPM Networks has been integrating technology solutions that solve complex business challenges. HPM Networks has designed solutions for both SMB and enterprise customers throughout the San Francisco Bay Area.
For IoT to grow as quickly as analyst firms’ project, a lot is going to fall on developers to quickly bring applications to market. But the lack of a standard development platform threatens to slow growth and make application development more time consuming and costly, much like we’ve seen in the mobile space. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Mike Weiner, Product Manager of the Omega DevCloud with KORE Telematics Inc., discussed the evolving requirements for developers as IoT matures and conducted a live demonstration of how quickly application development can happen when the need to comply wit...
The Internet of Everything (IoE) brings together people, process, data and things to make networked connections more relevant and valuable than ever before – transforming information into knowledge and knowledge into wisdom. IoE creates new capabilities, richer experiences, and unprecedented opportunities to improve business and government operations, decision making and mission support capabilities.
Explosive growth in connected devices. Enormous amounts of data for collection and analysis. Critical use of data for split-second decision making and actionable information. All three are factors in making the Internet of Things a reality. Yet, any one factor would have an IT organization pondering its infrastructure strategy. How should your organization enhance its IT framework to enable an Internet of Things implementation? In his session at @ThingsExpo, James Kirkland, Red Hat's Chief Architect for the Internet of Things and Intelligent Systems, described how to revolutionize your archit...
MuleSoft has announced the findings of its 2015 Connectivity Benchmark Report on the adoption and business impact of APIs. The findings suggest traditional businesses are quickly evolving into "composable enterprises" built out of hundreds of connected software services, applications and devices. Most are embracing the Internet of Things (IoT) and microservices technologies like Docker. A majority are integrating wearables, like smart watches, and more than half plan to generate revenue with APIs within the next year.
Growth hacking is common for startups to make unheard-of progress in building their business. Career Hacks can help Geek Girls and those who support them (yes, that's you too, Dad!) to excel in this typically male-dominated world. Get ready to learn the facts: Is there a bias against women in the tech / developer communities? Why are women 50% of the workforce, but hold only 24% of the STEM or IT positions? Some beginnings of what to do about it! In her Opening Keynote at 16th Cloud Expo, Sandy Carter, IBM General Manager Cloud Ecosystem and Developers, and a Social Business Evangelist, d...
In his keynote at 16th Cloud Expo, Rodney Rogers, CEO of Virtustream, discussed the evolution of the company from inception to its recent acquisition by EMC – including personal insights, lessons learned (and some WTF moments) along the way. Learn how Virtustream’s unique approach of combining the economics and elasticity of the consumer cloud model with proper performance, application automation and security into a platform became a breakout success with enterprise customers and a natural fit for the EMC Federation.
The Internet of Things is not only adding billions of sensors and billions of terabytes to the Internet. It is also forcing a fundamental change in the way we envision Information Technology. For the first time, more data is being created by devices at the edge of the Internet rather than from centralized systems. What does this mean for today's IT professional? In this Power Panel at @ThingsExpo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists addressed this very serious issue of profound change in the industry.
Discussions about cloud computing are evolving into discussions about enterprise IT in general. As enterprises increasingly migrate toward their own unique clouds, new issues such as the use of containers and microservices emerge to keep things interesting. In this Power Panel at 16th Cloud Expo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists addressed the state of cloud computing today, and what enterprise IT professionals need to know about how the latest topics and trends affect their organization.
It is one thing to build single industrial IoT applications, but what will it take to build the Smart Cities and truly society-changing applications of the future? The technology won’t be the problem, it will be the number of parties that need to work together and be aligned in their motivation to succeed. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Jason Mondanaro, Director, Product Management at Metanga, discussed how you can plan to cooperate, partner, and form lasting all-star teams to change the world and it starts with business models and monetization strategies.
Converging digital disruptions is creating a major sea change - Cisco calls this the Internet of Everything (IoE). IoE is the network connection of People, Process, Data and Things, fueled by Cloud, Mobile, Social, Analytics and Security, and it represents a $19Trillion value-at-stake over the next 10 years. In her keynote at @ThingsExpo, Manjula Talreja, VP of Cisco Consulting Services, discussed IoE and the enormous opportunities it provides to public and private firms alike. She will share what businesses must do to thrive in the IoE economy, citing examples from several industry sectors.
There will be 150 billion connected devices by 2020. New digital businesses have already disrupted value chains across every industry. APIs are at the center of the digital business. You need to understand what assets you have that can be exposed digitally, what their digital value chain is, and how to create an effective business model around that value chain to compete in this economy. No enterprise can be complacent and not engage in the digital economy. Learn how to be the disruptor and not the disruptee.
Akana has released Envision, an enhanced API analytics platform that helps enterprises mine critical insights across their digital eco-systems, understand their customers and partners and offer value-added personalized services. “In today’s digital economy, data-driven insights are proving to be a key differentiator for businesses. Understanding the data that is being tunneled through their APIs and how it can be used to optimize their business and operations is of paramount importance,” said Alistair Farquharson, CTO of Akana.
Business as usual for IT is evolving into a "Make or Buy" decision on a service-by-service conversation with input from the LOBs. How does your organization move forward with cloud? In his general session at 16th Cloud Expo, Paul Maravei, Regional Sales Manager, Hybrid Cloud and Managed Services at Cisco, discusses how Cisco and its partners offer a market-leading portfolio and ecosystem of cloud infrastructure and application services that allow you to uniquely and securely combine cloud business applications and services across multiple cloud delivery models.
The enterprise market will drive IoT device adoption over the next five years. In his session at @ThingsExpo, John Greenough, an analyst at BI Intelligence, division of Business Insider, analyzed how companies will adopt IoT products and the associated cost of adopting those products. John Greenough is the lead analyst covering the Internet of Things for BI Intelligence- Business Insider’s paid research service. Numerous IoT companies have cited his analysis of the IoT. Prior to joining BI Intelligence, he worked analyzing bank technology for Corporate Insight and The Clearing House Payment...
"Optimal Design is a technology integration and product development firm that specializes in connecting devices to the cloud," stated Joe Wascow, Co-Founder & CMO of Optimal Design, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
SYS-CON Events announced today that CommVault has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. A singular vision – a belief in a better way to address current and future data management needs – guides CommVault in the development of Singular Information Management® solutions for high-performance data protection, universal availability and simplified management of data on complex storage networks. CommVault's exclusive single-platform architecture gives companies unp...
Electric Cloud and Arynga have announced a product integration partnership that will bring Continuous Delivery solutions to the automotive Internet-of-Things (IoT) market. The joint solution will help automotive manufacturers, OEMs and system integrators adopt DevOps automation and Continuous Delivery practices that reduce software build and release cycle times within the complex and specific parameters of embedded and IoT software systems.
"ciqada is a combined platform of hardware modules and server products that lets people take their existing devices or new devices and lets them be accessible over the Internet for their users," noted Geoff Engelstein of ciqada, a division of Mars International, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
Internet of Things is moving from being a hype to a reality. Experts estimate that internet connected cars will grow to 152 million, while over 100 million internet connected wireless light bulbs and lamps will be operational by 2020. These and many other intriguing statistics highlight the importance of Internet powered devices and how market penetration is going to multiply many times over in the next few years.