Welcome!

Agile Computing Authors: Kevin Benedict, Harry Trott, Pat Romanski, Mamoon Yunus, Liz McMillan

Related Topics: @CloudExpo, Microservices Expo

@CloudExpo: Article

Cloud Finance: Best Practices for Implementing Rolling Forecasts

How rolling forecasts can enable sound Business Decisions

Everyone wants a crystal ball to be able to peer into the future. For businesses, that desire becomes a necessity because having a vision of the future allows for better and more strategic decision making in the present.

Rolling forecasts built on driver-based and project-based planning do just that, creating a framework that supports better decision making. A rolling forecast simply means that each quarter or month, a company projects four to six quarters or 12 to 18 months ahead.

This allows executives and key decision-makers to see both a financial and operational vision of the future. It also helps them assess next steps in their execution of their plan, understand critical pivot points in the plan and better judge the impact the economy may have on their plan.

We have seen rolling forecasts can replace annual planning cycles with a continual planning process that results in more regular business reviews that look to the future. These reviews enable managers to understand problems, challenges and trends sooner and improve their proactive approach to those problems, challenges and trends.

Here are the top 10 best practices for implementing them:

1. You need a system and Excel is not a system (it's a personal productivity tool). In the next nine best practices we will outline functionality and practices that will outstrip the capability of Excel spreadsheets. The challenge we have seen arises when companies start rolling forecasts in Excel and then can't keep them up to date because it isn't just a single forecast. Once a baseline forecast is created, additional analysis/versions will be required to:

  • Understand the impact of major and minor alterations to the plan
  • Run the plan against different drivers
  • Copy the plan as a baseline for other plans
  • Perform variance and sensitivity analysis

To get the most out of rolling forecasts you need a system that can provide the necessary functionality to accommodate your budget, forecasting, planning, strategic management and measurement needs. Excel will be to labor intensive, prone to error and too difficult to provide the reporting.

2. Understand your objectives of creating a rolling forecast. This will drive all of the other best practices related to rolling forecasts. While the overall objective of planning is to a) create a financial view of the vision for the future and to know the decisions you need to make and b) understand the financial impact of those decisions before you need to make them, your objectives and focus for the rolling forecast will dictate the areas of the plan that need more detail. As an example:

  • If your strategic plan calls for acquisitions you may consider building the plan with a high-level summary input of drivers that help plan for acquisitions.
  • If you want to better manage finished goods inventory you may focus more on customer/product forecasts and inventory management.
  • If cash is tight you will want to focus on timing of events around cash, i.e., payables and receivables policies, cash borrowings, line of credit.

The challenge is, there isn't one overriding holistic model format that allows you to account for all of these in a first pass rolling forecast implementation.

3. Identify the rolling forecast duration. The challenge with rolling forecast duration is it sounds easy until you put pen to paper and begin to implement it. There are a number of questions:

  • Will you re-forecast every month or every quarter? (many of our customers re-forecast monthly)
  • Will you add a new month to every forecast or just add a new quarter at quarter end? (our customers either add new periods quarterly or start planning for a two year time frame)
  • How long should the rolling forecast be--12 months 15 months 18 months, or should you start by forecasting out two years and at the end of the first year tack on another year?
  • How will the mechanics work of rolling in actual?

As a starting point, make sure your forecasting time frames are consistent with your business cycle and business needs. If sales 15 months from now are dependent on capital expenditures today, it is important to create rolling forecasts out past 15 months. It is also important to have a minimum of quarterly bias to the rolling forecast. That is, don't tack on an additional month to a rolling forecast at the end of every month, wait until quarter end and then add a new quarter, otherwise each month you are making preparers think about a new forecast period.

4. Identify the rolling forecast comparison periods. While this sounds relatively straightforward, it gets tricky when you consider the need for comparison columns in reporting. It is tricky because you need to compare to multiple periods/combinations of actual and forecast. With annual plans we compare the combination current year actual for closed periods and forecast for remaining periods to last year actual. We think in terms of annual sales and annualized expenses. With rolling forecasts we need to also roll in the actual and shift the comparison periods. We must be able to not only provide annual comparisons, (i.e. How will this year compare to last year?, Where will we end up for this year?) but we also need to provide how this 12/15/18 month rolling plan compares to the 12/15/18 actual results. This requires access to roll the forecast periods but also roll the comparison periods, for not just actual, but also for prior year actual.

5. Understand/analyze the dynamics of revenue and expense in your business and their related drivers. Rolling forecasts won't work if you create them from a bottom up forecast every quarter--they need to be driver based. This provides flexibility in the planning process and agility when you re-plan or create alternate plans. It also helps managers focus on what is really important. Over time, some of the drivers will be replaced if they are found as an inconsistent predictor of results and the stronger drivers will evolve to KPIs and used for goal setting. In addition, over time forecasts will also start to use consistent models and model drivers.

As an example, sales units should drive production volumes. Price increases could drive (or be driven by) material and labor cost increases.

To help understand what drives your business you can ask these questions:

  • How does this line item affect our bottom line?
  • Will $1 (pick appropriate unit of measure, thousands, millions, billions) in sales affect this account?
  • How does this number change our bottom line?

To be successful doing rolling forecasts it is important to use drivers to eliminate detail while creating a realistic expectation about the future.

6. Plan capital and strategic projects separately from the rolling forecast. Capital and strategic projects should be layered separately into the plan. Projects have two unique characteristics that require this:

  • They are time independent of a typical rolling forecast. Projects can last months to years and treating them with the same duration as a forecast doesn't provide the complete story around the projects.
  • They typically have a lot of dependencies which means project expenditures can be moved out or in a plan for a variety of reasons.

Projects should be treated as separate entity/profit center and have the ability to be move in and out of rolling forecasts. In addition they should have the ability to move time frames and adjust for changes in project scope.

7. Start with a small select group of key department/operations managers, plan on increasing the scope over time and plan on continual improvement over time. While conventional wisdom is to involve as many participants as possible, many companies find it easier to start with a small group that cuts across the major departments and gradually involve more executives, lines of business managers and operational managers as processes, methods are refined. Let the small group get some practice with the process. It will help flush out the process and the more practice they have at preparing forecasts, the better they will become and the more mentoring they can provide as you add additional participants. Typically there is a risk (including career risk) if you roll something out that isn't totally baked or based on theory, which could result in confusion, especially if you are doing it with a large group within the company.

As you expand the scope of the plan and the more people share in the plan the closer to reality the plan will be and the better the execution.

In addition you should plan for and build in a process of continual improvement. Managers should learn from their forecast accuracy record by carrying out postmortems on forecast. The objective is not to punish the guilty but to better understand how to do better, what changed, what were we surprised about, where what should we do differently to turn out better forecasts. To improve forecast, it is important to understand the cause for variability and learn to reduce them through postmortems.

8. Consider the rolling forecast as your baseline plan. Once you have the completed rolling forecast for the period/month, use it as your baseline plan. From this plan finance can massage drivers, adjust values and analyzing alternate scenarios, black swan events and potential significant events, to create a picture of alternate futures and be prepared to make decisions if situations arise.

This does requires the flexibility in the tool you are using to "mash up" scenarios and compare scenarios from different sources.

9. Tie your rolling forecast to your strategic plan. Rolling forecasts, if well prepared, form the backbone of a new and much more useful information system that connects all the pieces of the organization and gives senior management a continuous picture of both the current position and the short term outlook.

10. Analyze/understand how external conditions impact your performance. Business does not operate in a vacuum. Plan on qualifying the key external drivers of your business.

Do not confuse rolling forecasts with targets you receive your bonus on. Regarding targets and profitability, is it better to hit your target or gain targeted market share? Leading organizations are placing forecasting at the center of the management process. It becomes the essential tool for business managers to support their decision making, not just another management chore that needs to be done and they are basing targets not on fixed revenue numbers but rather percentages based on external market indicators.

Adaptive organizations focus less on annual budgets targets or long-term views/targets generated from within the company based on incremental sales and income year over year and focus more on rolling views and goals based on market conditions like achieving market share or achieving cost efficiencies over the competition by benchmarking against competition or similar public companies.

One Caution
As you consider implementing rolling forecasts remember the purpose is to provide a vision for the future and support better decisions. If you try to motivate behavior based on this forecast the results and plans get skewed and the usefulness of the solution is compromised. Forecasts should not be used by executive management as a tool for questioning or reassessing performance targets. This means forecasts and targets must be independent if you want to obtain both relevant action plans and reliable forecasts that allow risks and opportunities to be identified and corrective action taken in the best interest of the company (which may be in conflict with the target). If you do merge the two, the term "sandbagging" comes to mind.

Conclusion
Many businesses have yet to discover the full benefits of evolving their planning process to include complete and accurate rolling forecasts. With so many external factors that affect the bottom line for these businesses, including the volatility of the economy, creating rolling forecasts is a sound way to ensure strategic decisions are made. Businesses need an accurate picture of a future in order to chart a course towards it.

More Stories By Jon Kondo

Jon Kondo is president and CEO at Host Analytics, a leading provider of Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) based Corporate Performance Management (CPM) solutions. As CEO, he has led the company to record growth, partnerships, and industry accolades. Jon holds an MBA from Thunderbird School of Global Management and a BA in Business Economics from UC Santa Barbara.

@ThingsExpo Stories
In his opening keynote at 20th Cloud Expo, Michael Maximilien, Research Scientist, Architect, and Engineer at IBM, discussed the full potential of the cloud and social data requires artificial intelligence. By mixing Cloud Foundry and the rich set of Watson services, IBM's Bluemix is the best cloud operating system for enterprises today, providing rapid development and deployment of applications that can take advantage of the rich catalog of Watson services to help drive insights from the vast t...
WebRTC is the future of browser-to-browser communications, and continues to make inroads into the traditional, difficult, plug-in web communications world. The 6th WebRTC Summit continues our tradition of delivering the latest and greatest presentations within the world of WebRTC. Topics include voice calling, video chat, P2P file sharing, and use cases that have already leveraged the power and convenience of WebRTC.
From 2013, NTT Communications has been providing cPaaS service, SkyWay. Its customer’s expectations for leveraging WebRTC technology are not only typical real-time communication use cases such as Web conference, remote education, but also IoT use cases such as remote camera monitoring, smart-glass, and robotic. Because of this, NTT Communications has numerous IoT business use-cases that its customers are developing on top of PaaS. WebRTC will lead IoT businesses to be more innovative and address...
The question before companies today is not whether to become intelligent, it’s a question of how and how fast. The key is to adopt and deploy an intelligent application strategy while simultaneously preparing to scale that intelligence. In her session at 21st Cloud Expo, Sangeeta Chakraborty, Chief Customer Officer at Ayasdi, will provide a tactical framework to become a truly intelligent enterprise, including how to identify the right applications for AI, how to build a Center of Excellence to ...
SYS-CON Events announced today that CA Technologies has been named "Platinum Sponsor" of SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place October 31-November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. CA Technologies helps customers succeed in a future where every business - from apparel to energy - is being rewritten by software. From planning to development to management to security, CA creates software that fuels transformation for companies in the applic...
Recently, IoT seems emerging as a solution vehicle for data analytics on real-world scenarios from setting a room temperature setting to predicting a component failure of an aircraft. Compared with developing an application or deploying a cloud service, is an IoT solution unique? If so, how? How does a typical IoT solution architecture consist? And what are the essential components and how are they relevant to each other? How does the security play out? What are the best practices in formulating...
In his session at @ThingsExpo, Arvind Radhakrishnen discussed how IoT offers new business models in banking and financial services organizations with the capability to revolutionize products, payments, channels, business processes and asset management built on strong architectural foundation. The following topics were covered: How IoT stands to impact various business parameters including customer experience, cost and risk management within BFS organizations.
Internet of @ThingsExpo, taking place October 31 - November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 21st Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the most profound change in personal and enterprise IT since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago. All major researchers estimate there will be tens of billions devic...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Elastifile will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Elastifile Cloud File System (ECFS) is software-defined data infrastructure designed for seamless and efficient management of dynamic workloads across heterogeneous environments. Elastifile provides the architecture needed to optimize your hybrid cloud environment, by facilitating efficient...
There is only one world-class Cloud event on earth, and that is Cloud Expo – which returns to Silicon Valley for the 21st Cloud Expo at the Santa Clara Convention Center, October 31 - November 2, 2017. Every Global 2000 enterprise in the world is now integrating cloud computing in some form into its IT development and operations. Midsize and small businesses are also migrating to the cloud in increasing numbers. Companies are each developing their unique mix of cloud technologies and service...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Golden Gate University will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Since 1901, non-profit Golden Gate University (GGU) has been helping adults achieve their professional goals by providing high quality, practice-based undergraduate and graduate educational programs in law, taxation, business and related professions. Many of its courses are taug...
SYS-CON Events announced today that DXWorldExpo has been named “Global Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Digital Transformation is the key issue driving the global enterprise IT business. Digital Transformation is most prominent among Global 2000 enterprises and government institutions.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Grape Up will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct. 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Grape Up is a software company specializing in cloud native application development and professional services related to Cloud Foundry PaaS. With five expert teams that operate in various sectors of the market across the U.S. and Europe, Grape Up works with a variety of customers from emergi...
21st International Cloud Expo, taking place October 31 - November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud strategy. Me...
Recently, WebRTC has a lot of eyes from market. The use cases of WebRTC are expanding - video chat, online education, online health care etc. Not only for human-to-human communication, but also IoT use cases such as machine to human use cases can be seen recently. One of the typical use-case is remote camera monitoring. With WebRTC, people can have interoperability and flexibility for deploying monitoring service. However, the benefit of WebRTC for IoT is not only its convenience and interopera...
When shopping for a new data processing platform for IoT solutions, many development teams want to be able to test-drive options before making a choice. Yet when evaluating an IoT solution, it’s simply not feasible to do so at scale with physical devices. Building a sensor simulator is the next best choice; however, generating a realistic simulation at very high TPS with ease of configurability is a formidable challenge. When dealing with multiple application or transport protocols, you would be...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Secure Channels, a cybersecurity firm, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Secure Channels, Inc. offers several products and solutions to its many clients, helping them protect critical data from being compromised and access to computer networks from the unauthorized. The company develops comprehensive data encryption security strategie...
An increasing number of companies are creating products that combine data with analytical capabilities. Running interactive queries on Big Data requires complex architectures to store and query data effectively, typically involving data streams, an choosing efficient file format/database and multiple independent systems that are tied together through custom-engineered pipelines. In his session at @BigDataExpo at @ThingsExpo, Tomer Levi, a senior software engineer at Intel’s Advanced Analytics ...
WebRTC is great technology to build your own communication tools. It will be even more exciting experience it with advanced devices, such as a 360 Camera, 360 microphone, and a depth sensor camera. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Masashi Ganeko, a manager at INFOCOM Corporation, will introduce two experimental projects from his team and what they learned from them. "Shotoku Tamago" uses the robot audition software HARK to track speakers in 360 video of a remote party. "Virtual Teleport" uses a...
SYS-CON Events announced today that App2Cloud will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct. 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. App2Cloud is an online Platform, specializing in migrating legacy applications to any Cloud Providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud).